CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-26T06:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34212/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and X1.8 flare from Active Region 13873 (S16E60) starting around 2024-10-26T06:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible over the southeast limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193, with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 starting around 07:50Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T04:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T13:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1523.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 872.589 Acceleration: -1.23872 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 195793.23 Duration in days: 2.2661254 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.24 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 630.1 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 28/10/2024 Time: 13:11 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 16.22 hour(s)
Difference: -8.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-10-27T12:00Z
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